verifiedCurated Strategy
· 36 yr backtestTactical

Accelerating Dual Momentum

Real CAGR14.3%
Max Drawdown-25.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.71

The Accelerating Dual Momentum portfolio was created by Steve Hanly and introduced in a 2018 post on his blog Engineered Portfolio. The strategy adapts Gary Antonacci's dual momentum framework by replacing the standard 12-month lookback with a blended short-term momentum score designed to respond more quickly to emerging trends and trend reversals.

Investment Philosophy

Standard dual momentum uses a 12-month trailing return as its signal, which means the strategy can be slow to exit a deteriorating trend or slow to re-enter a recovering one. Hanly's modification computes a composite score by averaging the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month total returns for each equity asset. By weighting recent performance more heavily than a full-year window, the score is intended to identify assets whose momentum is building -- or accelerating -- not just those that have outperformed over the past year. The absolute momentum concept is retained: if neither equity asset has a positive composite score, the portfolio moves to a defensive bond position.

Who It's For

This portfolio suits investors who are already familiar with dual momentum strategies and want a version that reacts more quickly to near-term trend changes. It requires the same mechanical discipline as any trend-following approach -- committing to rules-based signals through whipsaw periods -- and is appropriate for medium-to-long time horizons.

Pros

  • Shorter, blended lookback makes the strategy more responsive to emerging and reversing trends
  • Retains the absolute momentum defensive filter that can reduce equity exposure during broad downturns
  • Relatively simple implementation with a small number of assets

Cons

  • Shorter lookback periods increase trade frequency and the risk of whipsaw signals in trendless markets
  • Based on a practitioner blog post with no formal peer review -- less independently validated than Antonacci's original model
  • Higher portfolio turnover can create more taxable events in non-sheltered accounts compared to standard 12-month GEM

Technical Notes

Signals are evaluated monthly on the last trading day. The composite momentum score averages the 1-, 3-, and 6-month total returns for each equity option. When neither equity shows a positive composite score, the portfolio holds long-term US Treasury bonds as the defensive asset.

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Average Allocation

Based on historical average weights across all rebalance periods.

Monthly
US Large-Cap Blend(SPY)40.7%
International Small-Cap Blend(SCZ)24.9%
International Developed Equity(EFA)16.9%
Long-Term Treasury Bond(TLT)10.1%
Inflation-Protected Bond(TIP)7.4%

Performance Snapshot

trending_upReal CAGR
14.29%
balanceSharpe Ratio
0.710
trending_downMax Drawdown
-25.79%
show_chartSortino Ratio
0.100
arrow_upwardBest Year
+65.6%
arrow_downwardWorst Year
-24.2%
update10-Year CAGR
10.20%
warningUlcer Index
6.54
analyticsUlcer Perf. Index
1.500
account_balanceGFC CAGR
+17.1%
computerDot-com CAGR
-0.1%
syncTrade Frequency
Monthly
shieldRisk Level
3/5 — Moderate
calendar_monthMin. Timeline
5 years
historyBacktest Period
36 years

Rolling Returns

PeriodLowAverageHigh
1 Year-24.2%+15.7%+84.0%
3 Year-1.6%+14.9%+42.7%
5 Year+2.7%+15.2%+30.8%
10 Year+7.4%+15.3%+23.3%
Compare to:

Growth of $10,000

Accelerating Dual Momentum
Sharpe Ratio0.71
Best Year+65.6%
Worst Year-24.2%
Final Value$1,281,157

Historical Drawdown

Percentage decline from the portfolio's peak value at each point in time.

Rolling Returns

Annualised return for each rolling period ending on that date.

Annualised return for each 1Y period ending on that date.

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