Global Tactical Asset Allocation 5 (GTAA 5) by Meb Faber
The Global Tactical Asset Allocation 5 (GTAA 5) is a simplified version of Meb Faber's tactical asset allocation framework, applying the same trend-following signal used in the GTAA 13 but across just five asset classes: US equities, foreign equities, real estate, commodities, and US bonds. Faber introduced this approach in his widely read paper "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" and expanded on it in his book The Ivy Portfolio, co-authored with Eric Richardson.
Investment Philosophy
Like the GTAA 13, this strategy applies a 10-month moving average rule: each of the five asset classes is held when it is above its moving average and replaced with cash when it falls below. The idea is straightforward -- avoid holding assets that are in established downtrends. The GTAA 5 trades breadth of coverage for simplicity, making it easier to implement without meaningful loss of the core trend-following benefit.
Who It's For
This portfolio suits investors who want a tactical, trend-following approach with a manageable number of components. It is appropriate for self-directed investors comfortable evaluating monthly signals across five asset classes and making mechanical allocation changes. For investors who prefer no timing signals at all, the static Ivy Portfolio covers the same five asset classes on a buy-and-hold basis.
Pros
- Simple five-asset structure is easy to implement and monitor
- Trend-following filter aims to reduce exposure to prolonged bear markets in any asset class
- Covers a diversified set of global asset classes including commodities and real estate
Cons
- Whipsaw risk: in choppy markets, the moving average signal can trigger repeated switches in and out of assets
- Long stretches in cash during equity bull markets can significantly reduce returns relative to a buy-and-hold approach
- Five assets limit diversification compared to the broader GTAA 13 universe
Technical Notes
Positions are evaluated at the end of each month against the 10-month trailing moving average. All five assets are equally weighted when held, and cash replaces any asset that falls below its trend line.
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Average Allocation
Based on historical average weights across all rebalance periods.
Performance Snapshot
Rolling Returns
| Period | Low | Average | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | -10.1% | +9.3% | +37.2% |
| 3 Year | +1.0% | +9.2% | +26.4% |
| 5 Year | +0.9% | +9.3% | +22.3% |
| 10 Year | +2.7% | +9.4% | +16.6% |
Growth of $10,000
Historical Drawdown
Percentage decline from the portfolio's peak value at each point in time.
Rolling Returns
Annualised return for each rolling period ending on that date.
Annualised return for each 1Y period ending on that date.