Global Tactical Asset Allocation - Agg. 3 by Meb Faber
The GTAA AGG 3 portfolio is the most concentrated variant in Meb Faber's Global Tactical Asset Allocation series, introduced in the 2013 update to his foundational paper A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation. Rather than holding the full 13-asset universe (as in GTAA 13) or a broad five-asset model (as in GTAA 5), GTAA AGG 3 concentrates the entire portfolio into just the three strongest-trending assets from the 13-asset universe. "AGG" stands for aggressive, reflecting this high-conviction concentration.
Investment Philosophy
Each month, the strategy calculates a composite momentum score for each of 13 global asset classes by averaging their trailing 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns. The three assets with the highest scores receive equal allocations of one-third each. An absolute momentum filter then checks whether each selected asset is above its 10-month moving average; any that are not are replaced with cash. By concentrating into the top three of 13 assets, the strategy accepts meaningful concentration risk in pursuit of capturing the strongest available momentum trends.
Who It's For
This portfolio suits investors who are comfortable with a highly concentrated, trend-following approach and willing to hold as few as one or two positions when others fail the absolute momentum filter. It is not appropriate for investors who need broad diversification at all times. A long time horizon and high risk tolerance are necessary to weather the concentration risk inherent in holding just three positions from a global asset universe.
Pros
- High concentration in the strongest-trending assets may amplify returns during sustained market trends
- Absolute momentum filter avoids holding assets in clear downtrends
- Based on Meb Faber's published, peer-reviewed research with extensive historical backtesting
Cons
- Three-position concentration creates significant risk if the top-ranked assets are closely correlated
- Can result in near-total allocation to a single asset class if multiple equity categories simultaneously top the rankings
- Higher portfolio turnover than diversified buy-and-hold approaches
- Momentum strategies can underperform significantly in choppy or rapidly reversing markets
Technical Notes
The 13-asset universe includes US and international equity subcategories (large-cap value, large-cap momentum, small-cap value, small-cap momentum, foreign developed, and foreign emerging), US and foreign government bonds, corporate bonds, commodities, gold, and US REITs. Composite momentum scores average the 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns. Assets below their 10-month simple moving average are replaced with cash. Rebalancing occurs monthly.
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Average Allocation
Based on historical average weights across all rebalance periods.
Performance Snapshot
Rolling Returns
| Period | Low | Average | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | -14.8% | +13.2% | +57.9% |
| 3 Year | +0.2% | +12.5% | +30.7% |
| 5 Year | +1.6% | +12.5% | +25.9% |
| 10 Year | +4.1% | +12.2% | +18.5% |
Growth of $10,000
Historical Drawdown
Percentage decline from the portfolio's peak value at each point in time.
Rolling Returns
Annualised return for each rolling period ending on that date.
Annualised return for each 1Y period ending on that date.